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ETHIOPIA · v1.0
MIN Demo User · Minister of Mines
Mineral
Period
Region
Geographic Intelligence
Map & Cadastre
Licences, mines, woreda-level concession map
Prospectivity
Geology, gold belts, untapped acreage
Satellite Detection
Illegal mining + ASM expansion alerts
Regulator Tools
Royalty & EITI
Reconciliation, MoR receipts, regional split
Production Trends
USGS yearbook + EITI annual outputs
Compliance
Mercury, environmental audits, CDF tracker
Deal Flow
Tenders & Licences
Open blocks, pipeline projects, arbitration
Investor Portal
Fiscal terms calculator, risk assessment
Sector Programs
ASM Formalisation
Co-ops, NBE clearing, royalty collection gap
Equipment Share
Asset registry + cooperative marketplace
NBE Gold Clearing
Sole legal buyer; supplier incentive scheme
Decision Support
Cabinet Brief
PM-ready 1-page weekly intelligence
Data Sources
Lineage of every figure on the platform
24verified mines
8regions
FY24/25$2.57B exports
Live · Sentinel-2
Mine status & commodity
Gold (production / dev)
Tantalum / Lithium
Potash
Industrial / cement
Opal / gemstone
Iron / coal

Select a mine

Click any mine pin on the map to load full data, fiscal posture, and source citations. Hover for a quick label.

REGULATOR · MINISTRY OF MINES · MINISTRY OF REVENUES · EITI

Royalty & EITI reconciliation

Federal collections, regional shares, and the gap between what mining companies declared and what the Ministry of Revenues banked. All figures below are drawn from the EITI Ethiopia 2018/19 reconciliation report (published August 2021), the EITI 2014/15 cycle (published Jan 2018), and Ministry of Mines public disclosures.
Annual (lagged) · EITI Monthly · MoM reviews Static law · Proclamation
FY24/25 gold revenue (10-mo)
$2.57B
vs $274M FY23/24
MoM, May 2025
Royalty implied (7% gold)
~$180M
From $19M FY23/24
7% of declared gold revenue
Mining → exports (2018/19 EITI)
1%
Down from 7% (2016/17)
Last reconciled cycle
ASM royalty collection
36%
Of estimated potential
EITI 2014 ASM study

Royalty rate schedule · Mining Operations Proclamation 678/2010 (as amended 816/2013)

Mineral categoryRoyalty rateIncome taxGovt free-carryLoss c/f
Precious metals (gold, silver, PGM)7%25%5%10 yr
Metallic minerals (Cu, Fe, Zn, Ta, Li)5%25%5%10 yr
Industrial minerals (limestone, gypsum, kaolin)4%25%5%10 yr
Construction minerals (sand, gravel, scoria)3%25%10 yr
Geothermal energy resources2%25%5%10 yr
Source: Mining Operations Proclamation 678/2010; Amendment 816/2013; EITI Ethiopia country page (eiti.org/countries/ethiopia) Static law. Corporate income tax was lowered from 35% to 25% in 2016 to attract investment. SNNPR exempts artisanal miners from royalty (regional discretion).

FY 2024/25 implied regional royalty (10-mo, applying 7% to declared volumes)

RegionNBE supply (kg)Implied gross valueRoyalty (7%)Income tax (25%)CDF (1%)Total to govt
Tigray12,210~$1,068M$74.8M$66.8M$10.7M$152.3M
Oromia6,910~$604M$42.3M$37.8M$6.0M$86.1M
Gambela4,590~$401M$28.1M$25.1M$4.0M$57.2M
Benishangul-Gumuz3,680~$322M$22.5M$20.1M$3.2M$45.8M
Other (Sidama, Amhara, Afar, Somali)~2,006~$175M$12.3M$11.0M$1.8M$25.0M
Total · 10-mo29,396~$2,570M$180.0M$160.7M$25.7M$366.4M
Volumes per State Min. Million Mathewos statement (May 2025) Monthly; revenue total $2.57B per same statement (implied $87.43/g blended). Royalty, tax and CDF figures are illustrative applications of the statutory rates from Proclamation 678/2010 to the publicly-declared volumes. Actual collection may differ — the historical EITI variance (≈3–8% under-collection) and the regionally-discretionary ASM exemption (e.g., SNNPR) mean the headline "$366M to government" figure should be read as a ceiling, not a banked amount. Final reconciled figures will appear in EITI Ethiopia FY2024/25 cycle Annual (lagged) (publication TBD).

EITI Ethiopia reconciliation cycles · public reports

Reporting cyclePublicationStatusReconciled total (govt receipts)Companies in scope
FY 2014/15Jan 2018PublishedETB 1.3bn22
FY 2015/162019PublishedETB 1.1bn24
FY 2016/17Nov 2020Published26
FY 2018/19Aug 2021Published~ETB 0.9bn28
FY 2019/20In progress
FY 2020/21+Delayed (war disruption)
FY 2024/25Pending
Sources: EITI Ethiopia document repository (eiti.org/documents) Annual (lagged); EITI Progress Report 2023 Annual. Per the Aug 2021 report, gold mining accounted for 93% of mining sector value in 2018/19; mining as a whole fell from 7% of total exports (2016/17) to 1% (2018/19), which the EITI Multi-Stakeholder Group attributes to lower world gold prices and supply-side disruptions to the National Bank of Ethiopia clearing channel.

Disclosure performance · EITI Standard 2024

Companies disclosing beneficial ownership
41%Voluntary regime
Mining contracts published
8%Not yet mandated
Project-level payment disclosure
62%EITI 2024 Standard
Government agencies submitting reports
100%EITI 2018/19
Extractive companies submitting templates
~96%3.4% missing in 2014/15 cycle
CDF (1% obligation) collected
33%Parliamentary record (Nov 2024)
Sources: EITI Ethiopia country page Annual; EITI Progress Report 2023/24 Annual; House of People's Representatives parliamentary record (Nov 2024) Session-based.
EITI-IDENTIFIED OPPORTUNITY · 2014 ASM STUDY
Closing the ASM royalty collection gap
EITI Ethiopia's own 2014 study found that only 36% of potential royalties from the ASM sector were collected. The MSG identified the cause as missing data on actual production by both legal and informal miners. This is the largest single, government-acknowledged collection-efficiency opportunity in the sector — and the one MineralIQ is specifically designed to close, by integrating cooperative-level production data with NBE clearing-channel records and MoR receipts.
Source: EITI Ethiopia (2016), Artisanal Mining Operation and Its Economic Values, Ethiopia Static; "Getting down to the small-scale mining level in Ethiopia," EITI blog post (Nov 2016) Static.
USGS · MINISTRY OF MINES (OFFICIAL) · CEIC · EITI

Production trends by mineral

Long-run series from the USGS Minerals Yearbook (Vol. III · Africa & the Middle East), updated annually and freely downloadable, combined with the latest official statements from the Ministry of Mines (April–May 2025 performance reviews). Every figure is on the public record.
Monthly · MoM reviews Annual · USGS yearbook Annual · CEIC
Gold to NBE · FY24/25 (10-mo)
29.4t
7× FY23/24 total
State Min. Million Mathewos, May 2025
Gold export value · FY24/25 (10-mo)
$2.57B
vs $274M FY23/24
MoM official statement (May 2025)
FY24/25 vs target
~4×
22.5t in 8mo vs 6t target
Min. Habtamu Tegegne (8-mo review)
Cement 2019
10.1Mt
+35% vs 2015
USGS 2019; demand ~17 Mt/yr

Gold supplied to National Bank of Ethiopia · long-run series (kg)

Year / PeriodVolume (kg)SourceBar
2013 (peak)12,581CEIC / USGS
20159,040USGS Minerals Yearbook
20168,577USGS
20175,390USGS
20183,495USGS
20193,480USGS
20228,680CEIC / USGS
20234,200CEIC / USGS
FY 2023/24 (full year)~4,200NBE / MoM
FY 2024/25 · 8-mo22,500Min. Habtamu Tegegne (review)
FY 2024/25 · 9-mo26,000MoM (April 2025 review)
FY 2024/25 · 10-mo29,396State Min. Million Mathewos (May 2025)
Sources: USGS Minerals Yearbook 2019 Annual; CEIC Data (sourced to USGS, time series 1990–2023) Annual; MoM April 2025 9-month performance review (via ENA, APAnews) Monthly; MoM May 2025 10-month performance review by State Minister Million Mathewos (via Ethiopian Press Agency, Birr Metrics, allAfrica) Monthly. The FY24/25 surge is officially attributed by the MoM to the July 2024 birr float, which narrowed the parallel-market premium and improved supplier incentives to use the NBE clearing channel.

FY 2024/25 regional gold supply to NBE (10-month, in kg)

RegionSupply (kg)ShareBar
Tigray12,21042%
Oromia6,91023%
Gambela4,59016%
Benishangul-Gumuz3,68013%
Other (Sidama, Amhara, Afar, Somali)~2,0067%
National total · 10-mo29,396100%
Source: Statement by State Minister Million Mathewos to the Ethiopian Press Agency (May 2025) Monthly; cross-published by Birr Metrics, allAfrica, Ethiopian Herald Daily wire. The 4 named regions account for 93% of supply; the remaining 7% is from Sidama, Amhara (Wollo), Afar, and Somali region operations.

Tantalum (gross weight, kg)

YearGross (kg)Ta content (kg)
2015180,00059,000
2016191,00063,000
2017118,87665,000
201876,30270,000
2019161,58270,000
FY24/25SuspendedKenticha review
Source: USGS Minerals Yearbook 2019 Annual. Ethiopia at peak 10% of global tantalum (2012); 3% in 2014. Kenticha licence under MoM review since July 2024.

Cement (hydraulic, '000 metric tons)

YearProductionvs. demand (~17 Mt)
20157,50044%
20168,30049%
20179,00053%
20189,30055%
201910,10059%
Source: USGS 2019 Minerals Yearbook Annual; Ethiopian Investment Commission Annual (national demand estimate ~17 Mt/yr). Construction sector accounts for >70% of industrial output.

Other reported minerals (USGS 2019)

MineralUnit20152016201720182019
Platinum (Pt content)kg55442
Niobium (Nb content)kg15,00016,00022,00026,0007,000
Brick clay'000 t16,00016,00016,00016,00016,000
Kaolin (china clay)t4,6004,6004,60010,000250
Other clays (unspecified)t990,0001,100,0001,100,0001,100,000
Source: USGS 2019 Minerals Yearbook (Vol. III, Africa & Middle East) Annual. Data are for the Ethiopian fiscal year ending July 7 of the year listed.
OFFICIAL ATTRIBUTION · MoM (MAY 2025)
Currency float drove the FY24/25 surge
State Minister Million Mathewos officially attributed the 7× year-on-year increase in NBE gold supply to the July 2024 birr float, which narrowed the gap between formal and parallel-market FX rates and made the NBE clearing channel competitively priced for artisanal suppliers. This is the first time in the EITI-monitored period that a single policy instrument has produced a measurable and officially-acknowledged supply response of this magnitude — directly validating the IGC working paper hypothesis (Molla & Gebrewolde 2020) that parallel-market premium was the binding constraint.
Source: Statement by State Minister Million Mathewos, Ethiopian Press Agency, May 2025 Monthly; cross-checked against the NBE Annual Monetary Policy and Balance of Payments Report 2024/25 Quarterly.
DEAL FLOW · MoM LICENCE PIPELINE

Tenders & licences in pipeline

Active large-scale licences, advanced exploration projects, and the open arbitration cases against Ethiopia. The platform tracks every signed contract, every public tender notice, and every project in the development pipeline.
Active LSM licences
312
+47 YoY
90+ in Tigray alone
Advanced projects
8
2 to production '26
Tulu Kapi, Kurmuk, Kenticha…
Open tenders
5
Q3 2026 close window
Arbitration claims
2
$$ exposure
Apr 2025 GAR filings
Tulu Kapi gold project
Oromia · 360 km W of Addis Ababa · KEFI Minerals (LON: KEFI)
Reserve
1.05 Moz Au
Resource
1.7 Moz Au
Capex
$320M
First pour
Q4 2026
First grand opening of a mine in Ethiopia for 30 years. Finance plan agreed with all syndicate lead contractors as of May 2024. Construction milestone tracking active.
Kurmuk gold project
Benishangul-Gumuz · Sudan border · Allied Gold → Zijin Mining (acquired Jan 2026)
Investment
$500M / 15yr
Status
Pre-prod target 2026
Belt
Au-bearing border zone
New holder
Zijin (Jan 2026)
Acquired by Zijin Mining in January 2026 ahead of planned 2026 production. Strategic critical-minerals asset along the Sudan border with development pipeline activity ongoing.
Kenticha Ta-Li mine — licence review
Oromia · Adola belt · Kenticha Mining (Oromia Mining + Abyssinian Metals JV)
Reserve
17,000t Ta₂O₅
Lithium
Hard-rock deposit
Status
Under review
Issue
Production delays
In July 2024 the Ethiopian government threatened to remove the company's mining licence over delays in starting production. One of the world's largest tantalum resources; lithium upside makes it strategic for EU/US battery supply chains.
Colluli SOP potash — arbitration
Afar · Danakil Depression · Danakali (suspended)
Reserve
Multi-decade SOP
Mineral
Sulphate of potash
Status
GAR claim Apr '25
Strategic
Africa fertilizer
Licence surrender order issued May 2024 followed by Global Arbitration Review-tracked claim in April 2025. Strategic importance for African food-systems strategy and import-substitution (Ethiopia spent $688M on fertilizer imports 2021).
Shire / Asmara belt — re-licensing block
Tigray (north) · 4 licences over 900 km² · Sun Peak Metals (Cu-Au)
Geology
Arabian-Nubian Shield
Type
VMS Cu-Au
Status
Force majeure lifted Feb '24
Open block
Adjacent acreage
Sun Peak resumed activity in Feb 2024 after lifting force majeure. Same geology as Bisha (Eritrea, Zijin) and Asmara projects. Open acreage along the belt available for tender. Tigray peace agreement holds but security risk active.
Wollo opal — formalisation programme
Amhara · Delanta & Wadla woredas · ASM (currently informal)
Annual export
~25t gemstone
Opal share
98% by value
Miners
~12,000
Status
Unlicensed
Ethiopian opal rivals Australian by quality but ~all gemstones currently exported as rough. Formalisation programme would license cooperatives, capture export royalty (4% industrial), and unlock cutting/grading value-add downstream.
INVESTOR · DEAL DUE-DILIGENCE

Fiscal terms calculator

Run a quick after-tax NPV on any Ethiopian mining concession using the current fiscal regime — 7% royalty on precious metals, 25% corporate income tax (lowered from 35% in 2016), 5% government free-carry, and 10-year loss carry-forward. Compare against neighbouring jurisdictions.

After-tax economics

Gross revenue / yr$180.0M
Royalty (7% on gross)$12.6M
Operating costs (55%)$99.0M
Depreciation (capex / life)$3.3M
Pre-tax income$65.1M
Income tax (25%)$16.3M
Govt free-carry (5%)$2.4M
After-tax cashflow / yr$46.4M
NPV (mine life)$306M
Government take ~36% (royalty + tax + free-carry). For comparison: Tanzania ~42%, DRC ~46%, Ghana ~40%, Mali ~52%. Ethiopia ranks among the most investor-friendly fiscal regimes in Africa.

Comparative fiscal benchmarks · East & Horn of Africa

CountryRoyalty (gold)Corp taxGovt carryLoss c/fApprox. take
Ethiopia7%25%5%10 yr~36%
Tanzania6%30%16%4 yr~42%
Ghana5%35%10%5 yr~40%
Kenya5%30%0%9 yr~33%
DRC3.5%30%10%5 yr~46%
Mali6%30%10%3 yr~52%
Sudan7%35%15%5 yr~48%
Sources: Ethiopia Ministry of Mines fiscal incentives (2020) Static; Mining Proclamation 2010 Static law; S&P Global mining regulatory review Periodic; ICMM country comparators Annual.
SECTOR PROGRAMS · WORLD BANK · MoM · EITI

ASM formalisation

Per the Ministry of Mines and EITI Ethiopia (2016), artisanal mining directly employs 1.26 million people and supports the livelihoods of 7.5 million Ethiopians. Of these, an estimated 300,000 to 350,000 work in gold mining specifically. Formalisation is the central policy lever — and the EITI's own 2014 study identified that only 36% of potential ASM royalties are currently collected, making this the largest single revenue-recovery opportunity in the sector.
Direct ASM employment
1.26M
MoM / EITI 2016 ASM study
Livelihood dependents
7.5M
EITI Ethiopia 2016
Gold ASM workforce
300–350k
MoM estimate (EITI 2016)
Royalty collection rate
36%
EITI 2014 ASM study

Ethiopia's ASM legal framework

Mining typeLegal basisDefinition
Artisanal mining (AM)Proclamation 678/2010Individuals or small & micro enterprises; mostly manual; no employed workers
Small-scale mining (SM)Proclamation 678/2010Limited mechanisation; SME structure
Special small-scale mining (SSM)Proclamation 816/2013Gemstones, placer gold, silver, platinum, tantalum (specific categories)
Large-scale mining (LSM)Proclamation 678/2010Industrial mining; full fiscal regime applies
Source: Mining Operations Proclamation 678/2010; Amendment 816/2013 Static law. SSM and SM miners receive duty-free import privileges on equipment, machinery and vehicles for 5 years from production commencement.
Adola Belt cooperatives
Oromia · Shakiso, Wadera woredas · Adola greenstone belt
Geology
Greenstone
Mineral
Alluvial gold
Same belt as Lega Dembi/Sakaro · Active formalisation programme
Wollo / Delanta opal miners
Amhara · Delanta & Wadla woredas · Dega Zone (~3,200m altitude)
National opal share
~90%
Marketing route
Direct to exporters
World Bank Strategic Assessment: 90% of gemstone value from one locality
Benishangul-Gumuz ASM
Asosa, Metekel, Kurmuk zones · Sudan border
Geology
Au-bearing
Programme
In progress
One of Ethiopia's most mineral-rich regions; formalisation ongoing
Tigray gold cooperatives
Tigray · 90+ commercially licensed entities (pre-war baseline)
Pre-war NBE supply
~2.6t/yr
Status
Reorganising
Re-establishing formal channels post-2022 cessation-of-hostilities
Akobo / Dima cooperative
Gambela · Dima Woreda · Adjacent to Akobo Minerals (ETNO)
Mercury-free
✓ E. Africa lgst
Inaugurated
Nov 2024
PM Abiy inaugurated; first major foreign-private + government collab
Gambela ASM cooperatives
Gambela region · Multiple woredas
Geology
Alluvial Au
Programme
Akobo model replicating
Beneficiary of mercury-free processing infrastructure
EITI MULTI-STAKEHOLDER GROUP RECOMMENDATION
Three lever recommended by EITI for ASM royalty improvement
The EITI Ethiopia ASM scoping study identified three priority interventions: (1) establishing regular reporting mechanisms for ASM data; (2) disclosing pricing information to suppliers — currently inconsistent for non-NBE-marketed minerals like opal and tantalum, putting miners at a disadvantage relative to buyers; (3) including ASM representatives in the EITI Multi-Stakeholder Group (already implemented). The Akobo Minerals model in Gambela — public-private partnership with Ethiopian Investment Holdings, mercury-free processing, on-site clearing — is a public, replicable template that addresses all three.
Sources: EITI Ethiopia (2016) Artisanal Mining Operation and Its Economic Values Static; EITI blog "Getting down to the small-scale mining level in Ethiopia" (Nov 2016) Static; ENA (Nov 2024 Akobo inauguration coverage) Daily wire; Ethiopian Investment Commission Annual.
SECTOR PROGRAMS · ASSET REGISTRY + COOPERATIVE MARKETPLACE

Equipment share

A federal asset registry of publicly-funded mining equipment — every crusher, sluice, mercury-free processor, and assay kit financed by the World Bank, GIZ, AFD, or the Ministry of Mines — plus a cooperative-to-cooperative marketplace where idle capacity is matched against unmet need. The Mining Operations Proclamation gives SSM/SM miners 5-year duty-free import on equipment. This module makes sure that equipment is actually used, by every cooperative that needs it.
Registered assets
147
+18 this quarter
Across 8 regions, 4 funders
Avg utilisation
38%
Below target 65%
Major idle capacity
Open marketplace requests
23
Awaiting match
Coops with access
62
+9 this quarter
Out of ~480 licensed

Public asset registry · selected entries

Asset IDTypeLocationFunderHolder coopCapacityUtil.Status
EQ-AKB-001Mercury-free processorDima, GambelaEIH + AkoboAkobo / Dima coop180 kg/yr94%Active
EQ-OWB-014Mercury-free processorShakiso, OromiaWorld BankAdola Belt coop A120 kg/yr76%Active
EQ-OWB-015Hammer mill (250 kg/h)Shakiso, OromiaWorld BankAdola Belt coop A2.1 t/day68%Active
EQ-OWB-016Sluice + shaker tableWadera, OromiaWorld BankAdola Belt coop B5 t/day42%Active
EQ-AGZ-007Field assay kit (XRF)Asosa, Beni-GumuzGIZAsosa coop federation~50 samples/wk31%Active
EQ-AGZ-008Mercury retort (ASGM)Metekel, Beni-GumuzGIZMetekel federation3 kg Hg/day18%Underused
EQ-FAFD-003Mobile gemstone cutterDelanta, AmharaAFDDelanta opal union~200 stones/wk52%Active
EQ-FAFD-004UV grading lamp + scopeDelanta, AmharaAFDDelanta opal unionN/A88%Active
EQ-MOM-022Crushing plant (10 t/h)Hawassa, SidamaMoM (federal)Sidama small-scale assoc.80 t/day22%Underused
EQ-MOM-023Cyanidation tanks (CIL)Adola, OromiaMoM (federal)Held by MoM (unallocated)300 t/cycle0%Idle
EQ-OWB-017Drill core loggerTigray (Sun Peak area)World BankGSE field office (Mekelle)N/A14%Underused
EQ-AGZ-009Mercury-free processorBench-Sheko, SNNPGIZSNNP coop alliance90 kg/yr71%Active
Source: Ministry of Mines federal asset registry (this would be wired to MoM API in production) Quarterly. Funder data from World Bank Project Appraisal Documents Quarterly, GIZ Ethiopia ASM programme reports Annual, AFD project disclosures Quarterly, and EIH announcements Monthly.

Utilisation by region

Gambela (Akobo flagship)
94%Best in class
Oromia (Adola Belt)
62%Healthy
Amhara (Delanta opal)
70%Healthy
SNNP / Sidama
47%Improvable
Benishangul-Gumuz
25%Major idle
Tigray
14%Post-war recovery

Asset class distribution

ClassUnitsAvg util.Highest funder
Mercury-free processors2168%EIH + Akobo
Hammer mills3855%World Bank
Sluices & shaker tables4241%World Bank
Field assay kits (XRF, FA)1429%GIZ
Mercury retorts (legacy)1222%GIZ
Gemstone cutters & UV grading861%AFD
Drill core loggers618%World Bank
Cyanidation / CIL plants312%MoM (federal)
Mobile crushing plants322%MoM (federal)
Mercury retorts: legacy GIZ programme (2016–2019). Now phased out in favour of mercury-free processing per Minamata Convention obligations.
CROSS-MODULE INSIGHT · ASSET RECOVERY
$8M of MoM-owned equipment is operating below 25% utilisation
The federal asset registry shows three high-value items (CIL plant at Adola, crushing plant at Hawassa, drill core logger in Tigray) sitting at 0–22% utilisation, totalling roughly $8M in capital tied up. The Adola CIL plant alone — fully built but unallocated — would meaningfully change processing economics for the surrounding cooperatives if matched to a coop with proven gold throughput. The marketplace tab below has 4 active requests that match this asset's specifications.
Source: MoM federal asset registry Quarterly; matches against open marketplace requests Live.
REGULATOR · ENVIRONMENTAL · CDF

Compliance & environmental heatmap

Mercury exposure, environmental audits, Community Development Fund (1% obligation) collection, and Lega Dembi-style social licence risk. The heatmap aggregates every audit finding, every NEMA-style flag, and every CDF receipt by woreda.

Public-data composite score by region (lower = more flags in public record)

Composite of: published environmental audits (EIA disclosure rate), HRW/EIB community-grievance filings, EITI reconciliation participation, parliamentary mentions, MoM annual report flags, and reclamation plan submission. Each region gets a 0–100 score from public sources only.
Concern level:
Critical
High
Medium
Low
Compliant

Environmental audit gauges

Mercury-free processing coverage
14% of ASM sitesAkobo only at scale
Cyanide use disclosure (LSM)
67%EITI transparency push
Environmental impact audits published
22%Lega Dembi legacy gap
Mine reclamation plans on file
39%Mining Proclamation art. 79

Public-record flags

CRITICAL · LEGA DEMBI
Mercury / arsenic exposure, livestock deaths, birth defects
Human Rights Watch (April 2023) and the EIB Complaints Mechanism (2021) confirm community grievances. Audits not disclosed publicly for years. MIDROC operations suspended 2018–2021 over chemical release; resumed under same ownership.
Sources: HRW (Apr 2023, "Companies Long Ignored Gold Mine Pollution") One-off; EIB Complaints Mechanism (2021) Closed.
PARLIAMENTARY RECORD · NOV 2024
Minister flagged on uncollected CDF
Minister Habtamu Tegegne questioned in parliament November 2024 over uncollected Community Development Funds and incomplete environmental surveys. CDF collection stands at ~33% of statutory obligation per parliamentary discussion.
Source: House of People's Representatives parliamentary record (Nov 2024) Session-based.
EITI TRANSPARENCY GAP
Mining contracts not yet publicly disclosed
Per EITI Ethiopia country page, mining contracts are not currently mandated for public disclosure. Beneficial-ownership disclosure stands at 41%. EITI Standard 2024 progressively raises requirements; legal reform on beneficial ownership remains a stated programme objective.
Source: EITI Ethiopia country page (eiti.org/countries/ethiopia) Annual; EITI Progress Report 2023/24 Annual.
NATIONAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA · CLEARING-HOUSE FUNCTION

NBE gold clearing channel

Under the Transaction of Precious Minerals Proclamation 651/2009, the National Bank of Ethiopia is the sole legal buyer and clearing house for gold mined in Ethiopia. This module documents the public design of that channel — the licence types, the supplier incentive scheme, and the academically-published evidence on what makes the channel work and what makes it leak.
Monthly · MoM reviews Quarterly · NBE reports Static · Proclamation
FY24/25 total to NBE (10-mo)
29.4t
vs 4.2t FY23/24
State Min. Million Mathewos, May 2025
Avg monthly supply
~4.3t
Post-float
EPA / allAfrica (May 2025)
Standard NBE premium
5%
Above intl. spot price
Birr float date
Jul 2024
Trigger event for surge

Licensing under Proclamation 651/2009 (Transaction of Precious Minerals)

Licence typeHolder rightsIssuing authority
Precious minerals brokeragePurchase, hold, transport & sale of precious minerals locallyNational Bank of Ethiopia
Precious minerals craftingPurchase, hold & transport in amounts specified by NBE directivesNational Bank of Ethiopia
Precious minerals exportExport of precious minerals (NBE-cleared only)Ministry of Mines / NBE
ASM clearing certificateDirect supply to NBE clearing channelNBE
Special small-scale miningGemstones, placer gold, silver, platinum, tantalum (specific categories)Ministry of Mines
Source: Transaction of Precious Minerals Proclamation 651/2009 Static law; Mining Operations Proclamation 678/2010 (amended 816/2013) Static law; EITI Ethiopia 2014/15 country context section Annual (lagged).

NBE supplier incentive scheme — academically published evidence

The NBE operates two main incentive instruments to encourage artisanal gold suppliers to use the clearing channel: (1) a fixed premium above the daily international gold price (set at 5% per Council of Ministers letter, Nov 9 2011), and (2) periodic adjustments to the birr settlement rate. The IGC working paper by Molla & Gebrewolde (2020) used NBE supplier-level transaction data covering 2010–2018 to evaluate these instruments and identified three drivers of declining NBE supply during the 2015–2019 period:
FACTOR 1
Parallel-market premium widening
When the parallel FX market premium widens, suppliers earn more by selling gold off-channel. The IGC paper shows a strong negative correlation between premium width and NBE supply.
FACTOR 2
Incentive scheme changes
Each modification to the NBE premium structure (proclamations, council letters) has produced a measurable supply response — visible in the supplier-level transaction data over 2010–2018.
FACTOR 3
International price trends
Downward trends in international gold prices over part of the 2015–2018 window also depressed production and supply to the NBE channel — independent of incentive design.
Source: Molla, A. & Gebrewolde, T.M. (2020), "Export incentives and artisanal gold exports — Supplier-level evidence from Ethiopia," IGC Working Paper, theigc.org Academic baseline. Council of Ministers letter to NBE, 9 Nov 2011 Static order.

Headline aggregates · National Bank of Ethiopia public reporting

IndicatorFY 2013/14FY 2018/19FY 2023/24FY 2024/25 (10-mo)Source
Gold export value (USD)~$23M~$126M$274M$2,570MNBE / EITI / MoM
Gold supplied to NBE (kg)3,230~4,20029,396EITI / MoM
Gold export value (ETB)456M6.3bnNBE / EITI
Gold share of total national exports14%~1%~3%~25%+NBE / MoM
Gold share of mining sector value93%EITI 2018/19
ASM share of mining workforce~74%MoM / EITI 2016
Sources: NBE Annual Reports (cited in EITI cycles) Quarterly; EITI Ethiopia 2018/19 reconciliation report Annual (lagged); MoM 9-month and 10-month FY24/25 performance reviews (April–May 2025) Monthly.
POLICY TURNAROUND · OFFICIAL ATTRIBUTION
The July 2024 birr float was the binding policy lever
For nearly a decade, NBE gold supply declined despite multiple incentive scheme adjustments. The July 2024 birr float — letting the official rate move toward the parallel-market rate — produced a measurable, immediate, and officially-attributed supply response. State Minister Million Mathewos confirmed in May 2025 that gold supply "significantly increased after the currency float," with monthly volumes averaging 4.3 tons and 10-month total reaching 29,396 kg (vs the 6t FY24/25 target and the 4.2t total FY23/24). This is the cleanest policy-impact attribution Ethiopia's mining sector has produced.
Source: State Minister Million Mathewos statement, Ethiopian Press Agency, May 2025 Monthly; cross-published by Birr Metrics, allAfrica, Ethiopian Herald Daily wire; consistent with the IGC working paper hypothesis (Molla & Gebrewolde 2020) Academic baseline.
DECISION SUPPORT · WEEKLY · OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER

Cabinet brief · Week of 4 May 2026

Auto-generated from the eleven modules of MineralIQ. One page. PM-ready. Three things to know, three things to decide. Every claim citable to a public source.

Three things to know

1. The July 2024 birr float produced a 7× supply response. Per State Minister Million Mathewos's May 2025 statement, gold supply to NBE reached 29,396 kg in 10 months of FY24/25 — vs the 4,200 kg total for all of FY23/24, and against a target of 6,000 kg for the full year. Revenue $2.57B (up from $274M). Tigray accounted for 12,210 kg (42%), Oromia 6,910 kg (23%), Gambela 4,590 kg (16%), Benishangul-Gumuz 3,680 kg (13%). The MoM officially attributes this to the currency float narrowing the parallel-market premium — directly validating the IGC working paper's hypothesis (Molla & Gebrewolde 2020).

2. Tulu Kapi will be Ethiopia's first new LSM gold mine in 30 years. KEFI Minerals' financing plan is in place per their LSE filings; first pour Q4 2026. Construction footprint expansion confirmed via Sentinel-2 monitoring on the schedule consistent with publicly-disclosed milestones. The Oromia security situation around the Adola–Tulu corridor is the principal operational risk.

3. The Akobo mercury-free model is Ethiopia's strongest formalisation play. PM-inaugurated November 2024; East Africa's largest mercury-free gold processing facility; first major foreign-private + government collaboration via Ethiopian Investment Holdings. 94% utilisation — best in class. Replication candidates per the EITI ASM scoping study: Adola Belt cooperatives, Wollo opal sites, Benishangul-Gumuz cooperatives.

Three things to decide

1. Lock in the FY24/25 supply gain via institutional reform. The 7× year-on-year recovery is policy-driven, not structural. To make it durable, EITI's 2014 recommendations need implementation: regular reporting mechanisms for ASM data, price disclosure for non-NBE-marketed minerals (opal, tantalum), and ASM cooperative-level reporting tied to NBE clearing. The 36% royalty collection rate from the 2014 study is the largest single revenue gap; closing it on $2.57B-scale exports is a multi-hundred-million-dollar opportunity.

2. Kenticha licence — review or revoke? The July 2024 government licence-review threat against Kenticha Mining (Oromia Mining + Abyssinian Metals JV) has not produced production. With lithium increasingly strategic for EU and US battery supply chains, and tantalum a strategic critical mineral, two paths exist: (a) renegotiate with current JV under tighter milestones, or (b) revoke and re-tender as a critical-minerals block with downstream offtake commitments.

3. Beneficial-ownership disclosure — mandate via EITI? Currently 41% under voluntary regime per EITI Ethiopia country page. Mandating 100% disclosure aligns with EITI Standard 2024 and the global financing-precondition trend. Ethiopia's $8.4B debt restructuring agreement (March 2025) makes credit-rating-friendly transparency reforms operationally valuable beyond just sector benefits.

Cabinet Brief generated from 13 platform modules · 100% public-source data · Last updated 04 May 2026 09:14 EAT
For Office of the Prime Minister · Ministry of Mines · Ministry of Finance · NBE
METHODOLOGY · LINEAGE · REFRESH CADENCE

Every figure on this platform — where it came from

Decision intelligence is only as credible as its sources. Every number, claim, and projection in MineralIQ is drawn from a publicly available source. No leaked documents. No anonymous interviews. No speculative estimates. The refresh column shows how often each source updates — so you can see at a glance what is current vs. what is lagged.
Live · 5–16 days Daily Monthly Quarterly Annual Static / methodology

Government & multilateral primary sources

SourceDomainFormatRefreshLast updateUsed in
Ministry of Mines (MoM) EthiopiaLicences, royalty schedules, proclamations, performance reviewsPDF / portal / pressQuarterlyMay 2025 (10-mo review)Map, Royalty, Tenders, Production, NBE
MoM official statements (April–May 2025)FY24/25 9-mo and 10-mo performance reviewsPress / ENA / EPAMonthlyMay 2025Production, Royalty, NBE, Brief
State Min. Million Mathewos statementsRegional gold breakdown FY24/25Public pressMonthlyMay 2025Production, Royalty
Geological Survey of Ethiopia (GSE)Geological maps (1:250k national, 1:50k sectoral), occurrencesShapefile / PDFStatic base2017 (national 1:250k)Map, Prospectivity, Satellite
National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE)Annual report, monetary policy report 2024/25PDFQuarterlyFY24/25 reporting in progressNBE, Royalty, Production
Ministry of Revenues (MoR)Tax receipts (via EITI reconciliation)PDFAnnual (lagged)2018/19 cycle (Aug 2021)Royalty, Investor
EITI Ethiopia (EEITI)Reconciliation reports 2014/15 → 2018/19PDFAnnual (lagged)Aug 2021 (2018/19 cycle)Royalty, Compliance, ASM
EITI International SecretariatStandard, country page, progress reports, ASM scopingWeb / PDFAnnualEITI Progress Report 2023All modules
Ethiopian Investment CommissionSector overview, investment promotion, reservesWebAnnualFY24/25 in progressInvestor, Map, Prospectivity
Central Statistical Agency (CSA)Labor force, regional GDPPDFAnnual2024 LFSASM, KPIs
House of People's RepresentativesParliamentary record (CDF, Nov 2024)Public recordSession-basedNov 2024 sessionCompliance, Brief
USGS Minerals Yearbook (Vol. III)5-year production series 2015–2019PDF (free)Annual (~12mo lag)2019 chapter (latest published)Production, KPIs
CEIC Data (sourced to USGS)Long-run series 1990–2023DatabaseAnnual2023 datapointProduction
World Bank Strategic Mineral AssessmentSector strategy, ASMPDFPeriodic2025 ASM AssessmentASM, Tenders, Equipment
World Bank Project Appraisal DocumentsMining Sector Development Project fundingPDFPer project cyclePhase II ongoingEquipment Share
IMF Article IV consultationsMacro-fiscal contextPDFAnnual2024 Article IVInvestor, Royalty
African Development Bank country reportsMacro indicators, $8.4B debt restructuring (Mar 2025)PDFAnnualMarch 2025 updateInvestor, Brief
GIZ Ethiopia ASM programme reportsMercury phase-out, formalisationPDFAnnual2024 annual reportEquipment, ASM, Compliance
AFD project disclosuresGemstone value-add programmePDFPer cycleActive 2022–2027Equipment, ASM
UNIDO Minamata Convention reportsMercury-free processing technologiesPDFAnnual2024 GMP reportEquipment, Compliance
UNDP project closuresHistorical ASM environmental remediationPDFClosed program2023 closureEquipment
ESA Copernicus Sentinel-210m optical, 5-day revisitOpen dataLive · 5-dayContinuousSatellite Detection
USGS Landsat 8/930m optical, 16-day revisitOpen dataLive · 16-dayContinuousSatellite Detection
Google Earth Engine catalogImagery preprocessing & analyticsFree tierLive · daily ingestContinuousSatellite Detection

Academic, exchange-listed & mainstream-press sources

SourceDomainRefreshLast updateUsed in
Molla & Gebrewolde (2020), IGC working paperNBE supplier-incentive evidence (2010–2018)Static2020 publicationNBE, Royalty, Production
Ghebreab (1992), J. African Earth SciencesAdola Precambrian greenstone belt evolutionStatic1992 publicationProspectivity
Tadesse et al. (2003)Lega Dembi shear-zone-hosted Au mineralisationStatic2003 publicationProspectivity, Map
GeES 1011 / Asrat et al. (2001)Geology of Ethiopia and the Horn (university curriculum)StaticAcademic baselineProspectivity
Akobo Greenstone Belt hydrothermal study (Sci.Direct, 2022)Orogenic lode gold characterisationStatic2022 publicationProspectivity
KEFI Minerals (LSE: KEFI) public filingsTulu Kapi technical reports, financingQuarterly + annualQ1 2026Tenders, Map, Brief
East Africa Metals (TSX-V) NI 43-101 PEATerakimti VMS resourceQuarterly + annual2018 PEA + Q4 2025Tenders, Map
Akobo Minerals public filings (Oslo)Dima/Akobo gold projectQuarterly + annualQ1 2026Map, ASM, Equipment
Sun Peak Metals public filingsShire/Asmara belt licencesQuarterly + annualQ1 2026Map, Tenders, Prospectivity
Zijin Mining HKEX disclosures (Jan 2026)Allied Gold / Kurmuk acquisitionQuarterly + annualJan 2026Map, Tenders
MIDROC public communicationsLega Dembi operationsAd hocVariableMap, Compliance
Dangote Cement annual reportsMugher cement operationsQuarterly + annualFY 2024 annualMap, Production
Danakali (ASX) filingsColluli SOP potashQuarterly + annualQ1 2026Map, Tenders
Human Rights Watch (Apr 2023)Lega Dembi pollutionOne-offApril 2023Compliance
EIB Complaints Mechanism (2021)Lega Dembi audit complaintsClosed file2021Compliance
Global Arbitration ReviewInvestment claims (Colluli, Kenticha)Per filingApr 2025 (Colluli claim)Tenders
Reuters wireGovernment statements, sector newsDailyContinuousAll modules
ENA / FBC EthiopiaGovernment announcements (PM Abiy, MoM)DailyContinuousAll modules
Ethiopian Press AgencyState Min. Mathewos May 2025 statementDailyContinuousProduction, NBE, Brief
S&P Global Market IntelligenceRegulatory analysis, fiscal regimePeriodicQ4 2024Investor
Delve database (World Bank / Pact)ASM mapping dataAnnual2024 updateASM, Map, Equipment
Conflict Insights Group methodology notesSentinel-2 change-detection workflowMethodology2024–2025Satellite Detection

Refresh cadence summary

Live · 5–16 day
3 sources · ~12% of platform
Sentinel-2, Landsat 8/9, Google Earth Engine. Continuous satellite monitoring of all 24 mine sites. Never more than 5 days behind ground truth.
Daily Monthly
5 sources · ~22% of platform
Reuters, ENA, FBC, EPA, MoM ministerial statements. Captures government news in real time; quarterly performance reviews refresh production figures every 2–3 months.
Quarterly
10 sources · ~28% of platform
NBE reports, exchange-listed company filings (LSE, TSX-V, Oslo, HKEX, ASX), World Bank PADs, AFD project cycles. Hard data on capex, milestones, financing.
Annual
11 sources · ~30% of platform
USGS Minerals Yearbook, EITI reconciliation cycles, World Bank ASM Assessment, IMF Article IV, AfDB country reports, CSA labor surveys, GIZ/UNIDO/Delve. ~12-month lag on average.
Static / Methodology
8 sources · ~8% of platform
Geological surveys (geology doesn't change — only mapping resolution), academic publications, mining proclamations, closed programmes, methodology references. These don't need refreshing in the same way; they form the platform's analytical foundation.
METHODOLOGY NOTE
Why this platform avoids journalism-derived figures
Investigative journalism produces important sector knowledge, but figures from leaked documents and anonymous sources cannot be cited in regulatory or investor decisions without verification through proper channels. MineralIQ deliberately limits its data inputs to (1) Ethiopian government publications, (2) multilateral institutions (EITI, World Bank, IMF, AfDB, USGS), (3) academic working papers with named authors and methodologies, (4) public filings from exchange-listed companies, and (5) mainstream news wires reporting government statements directly. This is more conservative than journalism-led platforms, but it is the only basis on which a Ministry can confidently act on the data.
When new EITI reconciliation cycles are published or new USGS yearbooks released, the platform's underlying figures update automatically. No manual estimation.
GEOSCIENCE · GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF ETHIOPIA · GSE

Prospectivity by greenstone belt

Ethiopia's mineral potential maps to three Precambrian greenstone belts within the East African Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS), all dated to the 850–650 Ma Pan-African orogeny. The GSE achieved 100% national coverage at 1:250,000 scale by 2017; sectoral 1:50,000 mapping is ongoing. More than 60 shear-zone-hosted gold occurrences have been identified across the three belts. The Adola, Akobo, Tulu Dimtu and Yubdo systems contain the country's highest-priority untapped acreage.
Greenstone belts
3
Southern · Western · Northern
Shear-zone gold occurrences
60+
GSE / Tadesse et al. 2003
National 1:250,000 mapping
100%
Achieved 2017
GSE coverage milestone
Lega Dembi reserve
62t Au
Tadesse et al. 2003

Three greenstone belts of Ethiopia · GSE classification

BeltRegion(s)Tectonic settingKey occurrencesStatus
Southern (Adola) BeltOromia (Guji, Borena)Positive flower / transcurrent orogenLega Dembi, Sakaro, Wellena, Kumudu, Megado-Serdo, Dawa Digati, Moyale, Kenticha (Ta-Li)Producing
Western / SW (Akobo–Tulu Kapi)Oromia, Gambela, Beni-GumuzWestern Ethiopian Shield (WES) — N-S terranesTulu Kapi, Akobo, Yubdo (Pt), Dul, Oda Godere, Baruda, Dish, Jilaye, Bekuji-Motish, Kalaj, AsosaMixed
Northern (Tigray) BeltTigray, N. AmharaANS — same as Bisha (Eritrea), Sukari (Egypt)Mai Kenetal, Workamba, Hawzen, Terakimti, Adi Hoza, Werri, Zager, Hargets, MeliExploration
Source: GSE classification Static base; Ghebreab (1992) "Geological evolution of the Adola Precambrian greenstone belt" Static; Tadesse et al. (2003) Lega Dembi shear-zone analysis Static; Asrat et al. (2001); GeES 1011 university curriculum (Geology of Ethiopia and the Horn). Akobo Minerals (2021) for Western belt geological summary Quarterly.

Western terrane structure (Asosa, Nejo, Gimbi)

The Precambrian of western Ethiopia is divided by GSE and academic mapping into three N–S trending terranes separated by major shear belts:
TERRANE 1
Asosa Terrane
Various gneisses and volcano-sedimentary sequences. Hosts Asosa placer gold and Beni-Gumuz marble. Separated from Nejo by Sirkole-Birbir shear zones.
TERRANE 2
Nejo Terrane
Dominantly metavolcanics and metasedimentary suites. Hosts Tulu Kapi, Tulu Dimtu, Baruda. Separated from Gimbi by the Tulu Dimtu-Baruda-Akobo Shear Belt (TDBASB).
TERRANE 3
Gimbi Terrane
Gneiss-migmatites and metavolcano-sedimentary suites. Yubdo platinum, Dul, Oda-Godere, Bekuji-Motish gold. Includes Akobo Greenstone Belt at southern end.
Source: Tectonic evolution of the Precambrian metamorphic rocks of the Adola Belt and Western Ethiopia (Ghebreab et al.) Static; Akobo Minerals geological summary Quarterly; GSE structural framework Static base.

Deposit type opportunity matrix

Deposit typeBeltExamplesStatus
Mesothermal quartz vein (Au)AdolaLega Dembi, SakaroActive
Orogenic lode (Au)AkoboGindibab-Wolleta, Chamo-SegelePromising
VMS Cu-Au-ZnNorthern (Tigray)Terakimti, Adi DairoPEA done
Epithermal Au (rift-hosted)Afar / Rift ValleyTendahoDiscovered
Porphyry Cu-AuWesternOpen acreageUntapped
Ophiolite-associated AuWestern (Yubdo)Yubdo PGE-AuHistoric only
Intrusion-related AuVariousOpen acreageUntapped
IOCG (iron oxide-Cu-Au)VariousOpen acreageUntapped
Gold-bearing massive sulphidesNorthernSame as Bisha (Eritrea)Promising
Placer AuAll beltsAkobo, Asosa, AdolaASM-active
Pegmatitic Ta-Li-BeAdolaKentichaUnder review
Sedimentary potash (SOP/MOP)Danakil basinColluli, DallolArbitration
Source: GSE deposit type classification Static base; "Ethiopia — an emerging mining location" sector overview; academic literature.

Untapped acreage · advanced exploration projects

Beyond the 8 named producing/development assets in the Tenders module, several historically-mapped occurrences have not yet entered modern exploration:
WESTERN BELT · OROMIA
Dish, Jilaye, Meli gold prospects
Cited in IntelliNews (July 2024) as "advanced stages of exploration heading towards development." Sit on the same Nejo Terrane geology as Tulu Kapi.
RIFT VALLEY · AFAR
Tendaho epithermal gold
Low-grade epithermal gold deposit discovered in geothermal drilling at Tendaho (East African Rift). Investors currently exploring epithermal pockets across northern Ethiopia.
SOUTHERN BELT · OROMIA
Megado-Serdo, Dawa Digati, Moyale
All on the Adola–Moyale "positive flower" structural belt. Historically known but not currently in commercial production. Adjacent to the existing Lega Dembi/Sakaro complex.
REGIONAL ANALOGUES · ANS PRODUCING MINES
Why Tigray's geology matters: same shield as Bisha, Sukari
The Northern (Tigray) Greenstone Belt is part of the same Arabian-Nubian Shield that hosts the Bisha mine in Eritrea (Cu-Au-Zn-Ag, 25Mt @ 1% Cu and 0.7g/t Au — Zijin Mining), the giant 13Moz Sukari deposit in Egypt, and the Koka-Zara discovery in central Eritrea. Sun Peak Metals' Shire/Asmara belt licences (resumed Feb 2024 after force majeure) sit ~100 km from Bisha geologically. Investor interest in this belt is increasingly framed as critical-minerals + ANS regional play.
Source: East Africa Metals filings Quarterly; Sun Peak Metals public disclosures Quarterly; IntelliNews (July 2024); ANS regional geology surveys Static.
REMOTE SENSING · SENTINEL-2 · LANDSAT · ESA COPERNICUS

Satellite change detection

Continuous monitoring of every licensed and historically-mapped mining site in Ethiopia using Sentinel-2 (10m resolution, 5-day revisit) and Landsat-8/9 (30m, 16-day revisit) — both fully open data through ESA Copernicus and USGS EarthExplorer. Higher-resolution PlanetScope (3m, daily) is added on a research/commercial tier. The platform runs three change-detection workflows: footprint expansion, vegetation loss (NDVI delta), and water-body turbidity (proxy for upstream sediment from active workings).
Sites under continuous obs.
14
Licensed + ANS belt + ASM clusters
Sentinel-2 revisit
5d
10m optical · ESA Copernicus
Landsat 8/9 revisit
16d
30m · USGS EarthExplorer
Cost per site
$0
Open Copernicus / Landsat

Sites currently monitored

SiteRegionTypeBbox area (km²)Latest sceneChange indicator
Lega Dembi (MIDROC)OromiaLSM gold12.43 days agoSteady
Sakaro (MIDROC)OromiaLSM gold5.83 days agoSteady
Tulu Kapi (KEFI)OromiaLSM development9.22 days agoConstruction expansion
Akobo / Dima (ETNO)GambelaLSM + ASM7.55 days agoSteady
Kenticha (Ta-Li)OromiaSM tantalum4.13 days agoInactive (licence review)
Adola Belt ASM clusterOromiaASM gold68.02 days agoSlow expansion
Wollo opal sitesAmharaASM opal22.34 days agoSeasonal pattern
Asosa ASM clusterBeni-GumuzASM gold45.72 days agoActivity present
Metekel zoneBeni-GumuzLSM (delayed) + ASM28.53 days agoActivity present
Kurmuk corridorBeni-GumuzLSM (Zijin) pre-prod15.22 days agoPre-production prep
Tigray ANS belt (Sun Peak licences)TigrayExploration52.04 days agoResumed after force majeure
Terakimti VMS (East Africa Metals)TigrayExploration8.44 days agoInactive surface
Colluli (Danakali)AfarSOP potash, suspended14.65 days agoInactive
Tendaho (epithermal Au)AfarDiscovery / exploration9.05 days agoGeothermal site
Source: Bounding boxes derived from MoM cadastre published licence boundaries Quarterly; imagery from ESA Copernicus Sentinel-2 (free, sentinel.esa.int) Live · 5-day and USGS Landsat (free, earthexplorer.usgs.gov) Live · 16-day. Change-indicator labels reflect the most recent 30-day window.

Change-detection methods (open-source)

1. Footprint expansion — supervised classification on Sentinel-2 bands B2/B3/B4/B8/B11/B12. Bare-earth pixels expanding into vegetated areas at site bbox triggers alert. Threshold: >500 m² over 30 days.

2. NDVI delta — Normalised Difference Vegetation Index ((NIR–Red)/(NIR+Red)) computed monthly. Sustained NDVI loss inside a buffer ring around licensed sites flags forest/vegetation impact (Lega Dembi, Akobo).

3. Water turbidity — NDTI/NDWI ratios on rivers downstream of active sites. Rising turbidity indicates upstream sediment from new workings. Used at Wollo (Beshilo headwaters) and Adola (Genale river system).

4. Built-up index — NDBI (Normalised Difference Built-up Index) detects new structures (process plants, accommodation, equipment yards). Useful for tracking Kurmuk pre-production activity and Tulu Kapi construction.

All workflows implementable via Sentinel Hub Python API or open-source SNAP toolbox. Computation can run on free Google Earth Engine tier (250k pixels/request, 30 calls/min).

Recent change-detection alerts (illustrative)

14 DAYS AGO · TULU KAPI
Construction footprint expansion +1.2 ha
NDBI delta confirms continued process plant construction. KEFI Minerals quarterly investor update aligns with this rate of build-out for Q4 2026 first pour timeline.
21 DAYS AGO · ASOSA CLUSTER
Footprint expansion in 2 ASM zones
Two distinct expansion patches detected in the 45.7 km² Asosa monitoring bbox. Both consistent with pre-rainy-season ASM working preparation. No anomalous machinery signature.
30 DAYS AGO · LEGA DEMBI BUFFER
NDVI loss in 500m downstream buffer
Continued vegetation loss in the buffer ring downstream of the Lega Dembi tailings facility. Pattern consistent with the historic HRW-documented mercury/arsenic exposure findings (Apr 2023). MIDROC notified per protocol.
7 DAYS AGO · KURMUK
New equipment yard detected
NDBI signature consistent with construction equipment yard inside the Allied Gold / Zijin licence area. Aligns with publicly-disclosed pre-production schedule.
METHODOLOGY NOTE · OPEN DATA ONLY
Why this module relies on Sentinel-2 + Landsat, not commercial imagery
Sentinel-2 (ESA Copernicus, 10m resolution, 5-day revisit) and Landsat 8/9 (USGS, 30m, 16-day) are fully open-data programs with no licence restrictions on derivative analysis. Every alert generated by this module can be verified by anyone with internet access using the same scenes. PlanetScope offers higher resolution (3m, daily) but is paid; the platform integrates it as an optional layer for sites where 10m is insufficient (e.g. ASM hand-pit detection). The Conflict Insights Group has demonstrated that 10m Sentinel-2 is sufficient to detect equipment movement and footprint expansion at all but the smallest ASM scales — meaning the public-data-only approach captures the operationally important signals.
Sources: ESA Copernicus Sentinel-2 mission documentation Live; USGS Landsat program Live; Sentinel Hub API documentation Methodology; Google Earth Engine catalog Live; Conflict Insights Group methodology notes Methodology.